The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime has been a major blow to Iran, challenging long-held assumptions about Tehran’s military strength. Iran was unable to defend key figures in the regime from Israeli covert operations or airstrikes, ultimately leaving Syria vulnerable to defeat by rebel forces. The loss of Syria, a vital land bridge to Iran’s Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, has weakened Iran’s regional proxy network and raised doubts about the feasibility of the “axis of resistance” against Israel.
The fall of the Assad regime has exposed weaknesses in Iran’s military and security apparatus, with a series of defeats and setbacks eroding the capabilities of the Quds Force and other Iranian-backed proxy forces. Israel’s actions in killing experienced Iranian and Hezbollah officers in Syria have accelerated this decline, leading to a breakdown in Iran’s network of contacts and intelligence capabilities.
Despite suffering significant losses, Iran may seek to rebuild its proxy forces, potentially using Yemen as a hub or exploiting chaos in Syria after Assad’s exit. The United States and Arab partners will need to prevent Iran from reestablishing its militant network and stop the flow of weapons to Hezbollah through Syria.
Iran will also need to navigate its nuclear program and approach the new U.S. administration under President-elect Donald Trump, who imposed harsh economic sanctions on Tehran during his first term. Iran may opt to maintain its nuclear program as a bargaining chip while seeking diplomatic compromises with foreign opponents to regroup and recover from the recent setbacks.
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