Experts, including Kelly and those from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), are increasingly concerned that Israel’s military actions against Iran will lead to increased nuclear proliferation. This potential increase could manifest in two ways: “horizontal” proliferation, where existing nuclear states expand their arsenals, and “vertical” proliferation, where non-nuclear states seek to develop nuclear capabilities. SIPRI’s Director Dan Smith highlighted that a new arms race is looming, presenting more risks than previous ones, as both the U.S. and Russia modernize their arsenals, and China accelerates warhead production.
Additionally, regional tensions are rising, particularly between India and Pakistan, with recent conflicts underscoring the volatility. Iran is seen as a likely candidate to re-enter nuclear development, with experts suggesting that a conflict could motivate Tehran to expedite its nuclear ambitions. This scenario could trigger a “cascade” effect, wherein countries in the region react to a nuclear-capable Iran with their own weapons programs.
Israel, believed to have around 90 nuclear weapons, would be alarmed by a nuclear-armed Iran, which would not only threaten Israeli security but also intensify fears in other adversarial nations like Saudi Arabia. Despite not having nuclear weapons, Saudi officials have indicated that they would consider acquiring them should Iran develop a nuclear arsenal. Additionally, North Korea may view Israel’s actions as an affirmation of its own nuclear strategy, reinforcing their motivation to maintain and expand their weapons program. Overall, the situation suggests a precarious escalation in nuclear tensions in both the Middle East and beyond.
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