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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Saturday, and it was a season full of surprises for forecasters. While predictions were for a hyperactive season, with high ocean temperatures fueling storm development, the season saw fewer storms than expected but still above-normal activity. The season began with Hurricane Beryl becoming the first Category 5 storm in June, followed by a quiet mid-August to early September period when no storms formed. However, activity picked up again in late September and October, with hurricanes causing significant damage.
Researchers are studying the unusual season to understand the factors that drove the strange pattern of activity, and to improve future forecasts. Changes in the African monsoon and the Madden Julian oscillation likely contributed to the unexpected lull in activity. Despite the mid-season break, the season set several records, including five hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and the most hurricanes forming in the Atlantic after late September.
Climate change likely made storms such as Hurricane Milton and Helene more severe, with rapid intensification and increased rainfall attributed to rising global temperatures. Studies have shown that human-caused global warming played a significant role in intensifying all 11 Atlantic hurricanes this year. While climate change may not increase the number of named storms, it is expected to lead to a higher proportion of storms becoming hurricanes, with more reaching Category 4 or 5 strength, as was observed in the 2024 season.
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